OSPREI: A Coupled Approach to Modeling CME-Driven Space Weather with Automatically-Generated, User-Friendly Outputs. (arXiv:2109.06960v1 [astro-ph.SR])

Home Latest Papers Latest arXiv Physics OSPREI: A Coupled Approach to Modeling CME-Driven Space Weather with Automatically-Generated, User-Friendly Outputs. (arXiv:2109.06960v1 [astro-ph.SR])

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    Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) drive space weather activity at Earth and
    throughout the solar system. Current CME-related space weather predictions rely
    on information reconstructed from coronagraphs, sometimes from only a single
    viewpoint, to drive a simple interplanetary propagation model, which only gives
    the arrival time or limited additional information. We present the coupling of
    three established models into OSPREI (Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble
    Information), a new tool that describes Sun-to-Earth CME behavior, including
    the location, orientation, size, shape, speed, arrival time, and internal
    thermal and magnetic properties, on the timescale needed for forecasts. First,
    ForeCAT describes the trajectory that a CME takes through the solar corona.
    Second, ANTEATR simulates the propagation, including expansion and deformation,
    of a CME in interplanetary space and determines the evolution of internal
    properties via conservation laws. Finally, FIDO produces in situ profiles for a
    CME’s interaction with a synthetic spacecraft. OSPREI includes ensemble
    modeling by varying each input parameter to probe any uncertainty in their
    values, yielding probabilities for all outputs. Standardized visualizations are
    automatically generated, providing easily-accessible, essential information for
    space weather forecasting. We show OSPREI results for a CME observed in the
    corona on 2021 April 22 and at Earth on 2021 April 25. We approach this CME as
    a forecasting proof-of-concept, using information analogous to what would be
    available in real time rather than fine-tuning input parameters to achieve a
    best fit for a detailed scientific study. The OSPREI prediction shows good
    agreement with the arrival time and in situ properties.

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