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- 16 September 2021 at 5:01 am #112953adminSite Adminstrator
- University or Employer: Loughborough University
- Country: UK
- Occupation: Site Owner
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) drive space weather activity at Earth and
throughout the solar system. Current CME-related space weather predictions rely
on information reconstructed from coronagraphs, sometimes from only a single
viewpoint, to drive a simple interplanetary propagation model, which only gives
the arrival time or limited additional information. We present the coupling of
three established models into OSPREI (Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble
Information), a new tool that describes Sun-to-Earth CME behavior, including
the location, orientation, size, shape, speed, arrival time, and internal
thermal and magnetic properties, on the timescale needed for forecasts. First,
ForeCAT describes the trajectory that a CME takes through the solar corona.
Second, ANTEATR simulates the propagation, including expansion and deformation,
of a CME in interplanetary space and determines the evolution of internal
properties via conservation laws. Finally, FIDO produces in situ profiles for a
CME’s interaction with a synthetic spacecraft. OSPREI includes ensemble
modeling by varying each input parameter to probe any uncertainty in their
values, yielding probabilities for all outputs. Standardized visualizations are
automatically generated, providing easily-accessible, essential information for
space weather forecasting. We show OSPREI results for a CME observed in the
corona on 2021 April 22 and at Earth on 2021 April 25. We approach this CME as
a forecasting proof-of-concept, using information analogous to what would be
available in real time rather than fine-tuning input parameters to achieve a
best fit for a detailed scientific study. The OSPREI prediction shows good
agreement with the arrival time and in situ properties.
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